This week’s post is a little different from our usual left of bang briefings. In response to the increasingly specific warnings and actions coming out of Europe about the threat of Russian attacks, we wanted to share an episode of Baselines & Anomalies with all subscribers.

Episode Summary

In this episode, we look at a series of increasingly specific warnings from European leaders about the threat posed by Russia and the possibility of attacks expanding beyond Ukraine.

European concern about Russia has been part of the baseline for years, but the anomaly is the growing specificity of the warnings and the observable actions governments are beginning to take in response. We use that shift as a practical example of how Watch Points can help leaders recognize when a changing environment deserves more attention.

From there, we walk through three layers of assessment: where you may be exposed, which assumptions could be wrong, and what second-order effects could reach you even if you are far from the immediate threat.

Key Takeaways

• Watch Points change attention. Increasingly specific warnings and observable government actions can signal that conditions are changing enough to justify closer monitoring.

• Assess exposure before certainty arrives. Identify where your people, assets, dependencies, and assumptions could become vulnerable if the security environment deteriorates.

• Define Action Points in advance. Establish the thresholds that would cause you to act so you can create more time and more options if the situation worsens.

Mentioned in this Episode

Reflective Question

What change in Russia’s behavior or Europe’s security environment would cause you or your organization to move from monitoring the threat to taking action?

This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series that examines events through the left of bang framework.

Episode Summary

New World screwworm was effectively pushed out of the United States decades ago through a sustained eradication and containment effort. As the threat receded, the likelihood and impact of domestic outbreaks fell, and readiness declined with them. For years, that was a rational allocation of resources.

Now the baseline is changing. After the biological barrier in Panama was breached in 2023, screwworm moved north through Central America and Mexico before returning to Texas in 2026.

This episode looks at the leadership problem that follows: risk can change faster than readiness can be rebuilt, and leaders need to understand not only what threats they face, but how long it will take to restore the capabilities required to respond.

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This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series that examines events through the left of bang framework.

Episode Summary

A change to a critical platform, vendor, or partner can create a new risk for your organization—even when the change itself doesn’t require an immediate response. When Substack unexpectedly introduced an AI-detection feature, it gave us an opportunity to work through the Recognize—Assess—Decide—Act sequence we use at the operational level of left of bang.

In this episode, we break down how we assessed what the change actually meant for The CP Journal, why we decided to stay on the platform, and how the experience exposed opportunities to improve our readiness. We can’t always predict what a partner will do next, but we can develop the ability to recognize change quickly, make sense of what it means, and build the capability to act when a different decision becomes necessary.

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This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series from The CP Journal that examines events through the left of bang framework.

Episode Summary

The middle of July brought a relentless stream of floods, wildfires, extreme heat, power grid concerns, tropical weather, public health alerts, and international disruptions. While few organizations were directly affected by every incident, nearly every public safety, security, or resilience professional was forced to evaluate whether those events posed a threat to their organization or community.

This episode argues that periods of concurrent disruption are more than busy news cycles—they are real-world stress tests for an organization’s assessment capability. By examining how your team recognized, assessed, and prioritized this wave of incidents, you can identify whether your assessment process enables proactive decision-making or has become the bottleneck that limits your ability to stay left of bang.

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This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series from The CP Journal that examines events through the left of bang framework.

Episode Summary

Artificial intelligence is changing more than the tools available to defenders and attackers—it is changing the speed at which organizations are expected to adapt. In this episode, we examine CISA’s decision to reduce the time federal agencies have to patch critical cybersecurity vulnerabilities from roughly three weeks to just three days and explore why that policy change matters far beyond cybersecurity.

Rather than focusing on patch management itself, this episode uses the directive as a case study to examine a broader leadership challenge: how organizations respond when performance expectations suddenly change. As adversaries become faster and more capable, leaders must understand which capabilities need to evolve—and how to adapt their plans, people, resources, skills, and validation processes to meet a changing environment.

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This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series from The CP Journal that examines events through the left of bang framework.

Episode Summary

Europe’s firefighters are warning that they are underfunded, understaffed, and unprepared for another severe wildfire season. But while the article we discuss frames these challenges as a readiness problem, it also highlights a broader leadership issue: organizations often use the same word to describe fundamentally different problems.

In this episode, we examine why defining the problem is the first step toward building organizational readiness, and how separating hazards, mitigation, capabilities, and resources leads to better decisions and better investments.

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This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series from The CP Journal that examines events through the left of bang framework.

Transcript

• Hey everyone—I’m Patrick Van Horne, co-founder of The CP Journal, and today, we are launching something new for our subscribers.

• Every day, leaders are expected to stay on top of what’s happening around the world, identify what’s relevant to their organization, and implement improvements before they’re needed.

• We recognize that it’s easier said than done.

• Every morning you wake up to an avalanche of emails, news, commentary, and analysis. Trying to sort through it all, determine what’s actually important, and figure out what you should do about it is a big ask.

• It isn’t always as simple as reading the article or the AI-generated summary.

• So today, we’re launching a new podcast series that looks at current and past events through the Left of Bang lens.

• In each episode, we’ll break down incidents, case studies, and stories from around the world and help leaders understand what happened, why it matters, and what lessons they can apply in their own organizations.

• We’ll examine events from strategic, operational, and tactical perspectives, and we’ll also speak with the leaders, the operators, and the practitioners who are addressing these challenges head-on in their organizations.

• We’re calling the series Baselines & Anomalies because the goal is to help you understand what’s normal, recognize what’s changing, and think through how those changes might impact you.

• I certainly hope you’ll join us.

• The first episode is available now, and we’ll be releasing new episodes throughout the year.

• Thanks for watching, and I look forward to helping you and your organization get Left of Bang.