Decision-Making on the Fringes
How to Act Boldly When the Next Move Isn’t Obvious
When an organization faces obvious danger in the near future, but still has time to act, decision-making can feel straightforward.
If a hurricane is forecasted to hit your city in a couple of days or a security threat is made against an event in a few hours, leaders tend to act decisively. They evacuate, shelter in place, call for support, adjust operations, or do whatever is needed to protect their community, customers, or staff.
In these cases, having a known, imminent risk provides executives with the confidence to act proactively.
Of course, there are always incidents where decision paralysis sets in, or where becoming overwhelmed by events due to a lack of preparedness can stall action. But for a well-intentioned and reasonably prepared organization, people act when it is clear that they must.
What’s harder is when you’re on the fringes of the incident.
The times when you’re not in the direct line of fire, but you know you’ll be affected, though you don’t know how bad it will be. Consider recent Hurricanes Helene and Milton: while the most newsworthy impacts were concentrated along the hurricane’s path, they also spawned tornadoes, dropped large amounts of rain, and impacted a much larger area.
If you were in one of those “fringe areas,” did you call in staff, change operations, or shut things down?
These situations are challenging because the uncertainty is greater. In addition to the life-safety elements of these decisions, trust, political capital, and credibility are also at stake.
It’s easy to say you’d make the tough choice and put people first, but how many times can you sound the alarm before people stop listening if you develop a perceived track record of overreacting?
If you make the right decision—whether that is stopping an operation or having people come in despite the conditions—people often say that you’ve simply done your job. You were supposed to make that call.
If you’re wrong, brace yourself for questions and comments from the peanut gallery. Whether the criticisms are about inaction or overreaction, there will always be people who feel the decision was either unnecessary or not decisive enough.
When leaders hesitate in these situations, it’s often out of fear—fear of the fallout if they’re wrong. It takes confidence to act when the outcome is uncertain. So, how do you develop the confidence to act boldly when potential impacts are not yet clear?
5 Steps to Prepare for Uncertainty
Based on my work with organizations readying themselves for an uncertain future, here are five recommendations and steps to prepare for these situations:
Set Decision-Making Thresholds. Sit down with organizational leaders, executives, and policy group members to establish clear thresholds for action. Define the circumstances under which a situation justifies intervention and identify the necessary information to justify proactive action.
Establish Watch Points and Behind-the-Scenes Actions. Implement low-key measures to monitor the situation, prepare, and pre-position resources in case the situation escalates. Part of your pre-incident planning should include ways to begin acting without raising alarms prematurely.
Be Able to Articulate Your Decision-Making Process. Be clear about the information you’re working with and why you’re making or recommending specific courses of action. For incidents on the fringes, people often think that what they know after the event was obvious before the event. That is rarely the case. Be ready to capture and articulate how you’re using the information available to accomplish the organization’s goals.
Play the Long Game. Build relationships that foster trust and understanding. When people know you’re committed to doing the best you can, in dynamic situations, with limited information, they’re more likely to understand that sometimes events don’t unfold exactly as early indicators suggest. Building this trust gives others confidence in your judgment, meaning they’ll support you even when the calls are tough.
Have a Plan for False Alarms. You will get it wrong sometimes. Acknowledge when you do and take proactive steps to rebuild trust. This way, you maintain the influence and credibility needed the next time the situation presents itself
The Payoff: Readiness for the Big One (and the Not-So-Big Ones)
Navigating these borderline cases—the ones that aren’t obvious—builds the skills that will matter most when the big one finally arrives. You get to dial in your alert and warning systems, refine your communication strategies, and sharpen the organization’s ability to respond. Facing fringe events is one way to prepare for the real crisis.
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