Evacuations, Illegal Streaming, Planning vs. Outcomes & More
Profiles in Preparedness #49
Welcome back to The CP Journal, where we break down what it takes to get left of bang.
Organizations preparing for an uncertain future don’t need to predict the year ahead with perfect accuracy. What they do need, though, is a plan that helps them see what’s working so they can adjust before circumstances force their hand.
That idea came into focus this week while I was working with a client on their preparedness strategy. As we finished scoping and prioritizing the projects they want to take on in 2026, a pattern emerged: the organizations that treat preparedness as a strategic advantage think about plans and outcomes very differently.
Organizations that say “we plan to grow by 10%,” or “we plan to increase our alert opt-ins by 15%” or “we plan to reduce incidents by 8%,” might clarify their desired destination, but it doesn’t say anything about how the work will get done. In fact, those statements aren’t plans at all. They are goals.
Plans live at the actionable level. They show who is responsible, what work is required, and how the organization intends to move toward its goals.
When teams untangle the goals they’re pursuing from the plans that support them, they gain visibility into what is working. They can see which actions are building capability, which assumptions are shaky, and where early adjustments will yield improvements.
That clarity is incredibly valuable, and once it exists, decisions about what to pursue come into greater focus as well. Decisions are no longer fixed conclusions, but working hypotheses you can test in the real world. Some of those bets will pay off. Others won’t. That’s expected.
What matters is the movement—acting, learning, and sharpening your understanding of what actually works. Preparedness has never been about locking in the perfect plan. It’s about building the capacity to learn and adapt fast enough to stay ahead of whatever comes next and keep moving left of bang as reality unfolds.
We’re taking next week off. Your inbox will be stuffed enough without one more email from me. Happy Thanksgiving to all our American readers, and we will see you in December!
If you’re going to the California Association of Tactical Officers (CATO) conference in December, let me know—I’ll be presenting on December 3rd and 4th and would love to connect.
Inside The CP Journal
Here is an article that was added to the site this week.
Our client, the Pikes Peak Regional Office of Emergency Management in Colorado, aimed to improve its ability to quickly evacuate large parts of the community in the event of a fast-moving, wind-driven fire in the built environment.
This case study shows how The CP Journal leveraged AI platforms and lessons learned in high-profile wind-driven fires, such as the 2025 Los Angeles Fires, the 2023 Lahaina Fire in Maui, the 2021 Marshall Fire in Boulder, CO, and the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, CA, to develop a new regional evacuation plan.
This Week‘s Reads
Here are a few standout reads from this week with insights, ideas, and perspectives that caught my attention.
Podcast | The Underground World of Illegal Streaming. This episode about illegal streaming for live Premier League was a great look at the culture, crime, and crisis associated with the practice. It has the takes of match-going fans, police investigations, and the challenge broadcasters face in trying to stop piracy of live matches.
Paper | Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened. This is a longer read, but will be worthwhile for anyone working to improve their organization. When capabilities don’t perform at their desired level, the two options organizations face are to work harder or work smarter. Since the short-term solution is often to work harder, that becomes a reinforcing loop that becomes the new norm. Organizations that structurally address a problem, though, rely less on heroics, but it requires an investment in money, staff, or time. In a world where awareness of better ways is no longer a barrier, success comes down to implementation.
Article | Reuters Blows Lid on Meta’s Fraud Profit Scandal. “Reuters has revealed that Meta had projected its 2024 advertisements for scams and banned goods would bring in about USD$16 billion or 10% of its total revenue.” If Meta believes an advertisement is likely a scammer, but hasn’t met a 95% certainty in that decision, the company charges higher ad rates as a “penalty”. The idea is to discourage suspicious advertisers from buying ads. But it’s a two-sided incentive: a scammer’s penalty is Meta’s profit.
Article | You’re Part of an Ecosystem. Act Like It. “AI has compressed what one person can do…But it also creates tension. When individuals outpace the systems they operate within, connection becomes the bottleneck…Speed without shared clarity only multiplies confusion.” There is a lot in this article that can help leaders step back and think about how the way their teams work together is changing in the age of AI. There is also this gem of a line: “One of my go-to leadership principles is: you can’t steer a parked car. It’s easier to guide people when they are already in motion, even if they aren’t yet on the perfect path.” Give it a read.
Enjoyed This Issue? Pass It On and Go Deeper.
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And if you’re thinking about how to strengthen your organization’s preparedness, that’s what we do. Whether it’s strategy development, assessments, planning, speaking events, or exercises, we help teams build the skills and strategies to stay ahead of the next challenge.
“Plans live at the actionable level. They show who is responsible, what work is required, and how the organization intends to move toward its goals.”
Exactly right, Patrick! My fave planning question is “What do you need to keep doing, start doing and stop doing in order to reach your goal? Who is responsible for ensuring that all happens?”
Spot on. This distinction between goals and plans hits the same gap I see in group dynamics work. When teams don’t separate the destination from the behaviors that actually move them, they lose the ability to see early drift and adapt properly.