Skating to Where The Puck is Going + Strategy Execution + Process Culture + More

Profiles in Preparedness #14

"Skate to where the puck is going, not to where it has been." - Wayne Gretzky

This famous quote gets thrown around a lot in disaster preparedness. It is used to express that we should be preparing for future disasters and future risks to our communities instead of spending time trying to retroactively prepare for the last disaster that occurred.

At face value, the quote offers a useful perspective: position yourself for the future rather than lingering on the past. And it's a solid piece of advice. It’s simple, clear, and forward-looking.

But in the real world, it's rarely that straightforward.

The Great One can say this because hockey is a game played within rules and boundaries. Even though you're playing another team, the environment is predictable. In the world of disaster preparedness and response, these structured rules and predictability are rarely there.

In hockey, there isn't a risk of the rink turning into an infinite sheet of ice without boards to constrain or guide the puck. The ice also isn't full of randomly placed and oddly shaped obstacles that send the puck in unexpected directions or slow the players down.

There is no risk of a hockey team showing up for a game to learn that, instead of playing against just one team today, they will actually be playing against two teams.

There is no risk of discovering mid-game that they also need to send a team across town to play a second game, at the same time. They definitely won't arrive at a hockey game only to be told they'll be playing soccer instead. And if they did find out that was the situation, they wouldn't be criticized for their “failure of imagination” to see this possibility.

Yet, in disaster management, these scenarios are the norm.

Professionals are expected to "skate to where the puck is going," even though:

• The game you've been practicing for might be played on an ice rink, or a field, or a track, or a court.

• You might need to "win" two games being played at the same time, with one of your teams being made up completely of mutual aid partners who might not even be hockey players (but are still wearing your jersey).

• The rules can change in the middle of the game, along with an unclear definition of how the “winner” will be determined.

To a degree, this is just the job.

But acknowledging this complexity doesn't mean we can throw up our hands, say that we'll just be adaptable to the moment, and remain reactive to every twist and turn. While adaptability is essential, it must be paired with anticipation. Success in this field requires not just responding to change, but actively preparing for it.

This is why positioning is so important for emergency management, public safety, and security organizations.

To succeed, we need to be able to do three things:

1. We need to know where we are right now in terms of our readiness.

2. We need to know where we need to be to address emerging risks and challenges.

3. We need to be able to monitor our environment for signals that suggest we need to adjust our position as the metaphorical puck bounces off the obstacles we didn't or couldn’t see.

It can feel like a lot, but it is doable. In fact, it's how organizations move "left of bang"—by positioning themselves strategically for the future and setting up the systems they need to monitor and adjust to conditions as they evolve.

So, take some time this week to pause and reflect:

• Where could the puck go next?

• Are you positioned to win once it gets there?

If you're unsure where to start, know that you don't have to begin with a blank whiteboard. Take a look at this past article about how organizations thrive in volatile times or reach out to me directly, and I'd be happy to help.

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This Week‘s Reads

Here are a few thought-provoking reads (and a show) that caught my attention this week and why I thought they were worth sharing.

• Article | Weather Service struggles to convey fire warnings to public. The Los Angeles Fires will offer public safety organizations across the country no shortage of topics to consider as they reflect on their own state of readiness. This Axios article takes a look at the challenge of providing alerts and warnings to the public, a topic that comes up as an area for improvement in incident after incident. While "the fires began during a period when the National Weather Service was practically screaming about the fire threat from a rare high wind event in ALL CAPS text," there is also the reality that you don't know where the next fire will actually break out. For practitioners looking to improve this capability within their communities, I think this article helps to scope the problem.

• Article | Building a Process Culture. Processes often divide people—there are those who have been burned by rigid systems that stifled creativity and there are those who have been exhausted by the chaos that comes from a lack of structure. This tension shows up in emergency planning projects, where plans must be both actionable and flexible. The key is balance: processes that guide while leaving room for adaptability and innovation. Seth Godin’s question cuts to the core: What does it cost to be wrong? If failure isn’t an option, it’s time to embrace the right process.

• Article | You Have a Solid Strategy, But Can You Execute It? Execution is what separates potential from performance, but many strategies fail during the handoff between those who design them and those who implement them. This article from The McCrystal Group offers five ways to set the conditions for success when implementing your strategic plans, which is a timely reminder as leaders reflect on their first month of 2025. I personally enjoyed the last recommendation about the need to stress test your strategy (a common refrain from me about learning from other disasters) as it included the line, "This is more than an exercise in managing risk; it is a forward-looking exercise for achieving success."

• Article | Tariffs: The Costs of Inaction. I'm not sharing this article because I'm fascinated by tariffs (far from it), but it’s a great example of using scenario planning to prepare for an uncertain future. Whether it’s tariffs or other disruptions, understanding your risks and exposures is the first step toward building the adaptability and resilience your organization needs. This article shows some ways to use scenarios to identify what capabilities might be required in the future, freeing up organizational leaders to make informed choices about the way forward.

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For When You’re Ready

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And if you’re thinking about how to strengthen your organization's preparedness, that’s what I do. Whether it’s assessments, planning, speaking, or exercises, I help teams build the skills and strategies to stay ahead of the next challenge.