U.S. Situation Report | 06.04.2025
Your Weekly Forward-Looking Intelligence Brief from The CP Journal's Watch Office
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Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Here are the highlights of the week ahead. Scroll down for a deeper analysis and the sources of information for any specific section:
😎Weather: A dynamic early-summer pattern will challenge many parts of the country this week. A stalled system will generate severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from the Plains and Midwest to the East Coast, raising the threat of flash flooding in vulnerable areas. In the South, an expanding heat dome is set to bring dangerous heat and humidity. Welcoming the start of hurricane season, a coastal disturbance will soak the Southeast, though significant tropical development is not expected. The West sees a brief round of unusual thunderstorms in the Southwest mid-week, then a return to hot, dry conditions by early next week.
🚔Safety & Security: Public safety officials are bracing for a high-activity week of large gatherings – from pride marches and horse races to concerts and rallies – under an elevated threat environment. Federal bulletins note that while no specific plots are identified, violent extremist messaging has highlighted major events as potential targets, urging heightened vigilance around all high-profile venues.
🙈Health & Medical: The United States’ public health outlook for this week is generally positive with cautious vigilance. Most of the country enjoys low levels of infectious disease – the “tripledemic” of COVID/flu/RSV has ebbed, and no new pandemics are on the horizon. The decades-long overdose crisis, while still severe, is finally showing improving trends. Environmental conditions are relatively calm: air quality is mostly good (though wildfire smoke has begun entering the U.S.).
🔐Cybersecurity: The nation’s cyber threat landscape remains elevated this week. High-impact breaches struck healthcare, government, financial, tech, and retail sectors in recent days, underscoring that no industry is immune. At the same time, authorities are warning of ongoing state-backed espionage campaigns and actively exploited vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure.
💡Critical Infrastructure: Across all regions, critical infrastructure is holding steady with no major disruptions forecast. Early-season extreme heat is driving up power demand (especially in the South and West) but grid operators report sufficient reserves.
Remember: this report is intended for situational awareness, and readers should validate any information before acting.
In-Depth Analysis
Weather Outlook
⛈️West Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↓
A mid-week Pacific storm will trigger widespread thunderstorms across the Southwest. Areas from southeast California through central/northern Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah/Colorado and southern Nevada may see locally heavy downpours and flash flooding, especially over burn scars.
Late in the week, a strong upper ridge builds over the West, bringing a spike in temperatures – highs reaching the 90s °F in the Great Basin and low 100s in California’s Central Valley early next week. Fire weather concerns remain moderate; recent moisture is limiting wildland fire spread despite ongoing drought in parts of the Southwest.
⛈️Midwest Region | Risk Level: Elevated & →
A slow-moving system will stall from the Plains to the Great Lakes, triggering multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across the Midwest. Scattered severe storms (with large hail and damaging winds) are likely mid-to-late week, especially from Kansas/Missouri into the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, deep Gulf moisture will produce excessive rainfall in spots – a WPC Marginal Risk of flash flooding spans from the Central Plains through the Midwest on Thursday/Friday, with a focused Slight Risk in eastern Oklahoma and surrounding areas on Friday.
By the weekend, the front will shift slowly southeast, bringing drier air into the Upper Midwest.
🥵South Region | Risk Level: Severe & ↑
The South will contend with two major and compounding hazards this week.
First, a multi-day severe weather episode is expected across the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. An upper-level disturbance will spark severe thunderstorms from West Texas and Oklahoma east into Arkansas, especially Thursday into Friday, with threats of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a risk in areas of repeated downpours – the WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall centered on Oklahoma Friday.
Second, an extreme heat wave is developing over southern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. By this weekend, high temperatures are forecast to top 105°F in South Texas (e.g. Rio Grande Valley) with heat index values above 110°F in eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Climate Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for extreme heat in these areas on June 10–11. Heat advisories or excessive heat warnings are likely as humidity combines with the heat to produce dangerous conditions.
🌊Southeast Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↑
Tropical Disturance: A slow-moving system will bring prolonged heavy rainfall to parts of Florida and the Southeast coast through late week. Tropical moisture pooling along a stalled front could dump 4–8 inches of rain in some areas. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this disturbance (low chance of subtropical development), but regardless of development, it will produce flooding rains. Flash Flood Watches/Advisories are in effect for portions of the Florida Peninsula, and the WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive rain from northern Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas on Thursday–Friday.
Thunderstorms: By the weekend, as the coastal low lifts out, the trailing cold front from the Midwest will sink into the Southeast. This will spark rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the Deep South into Tennessee and the southern Appalachians late weekend into early next week. Some storms could be strong, and a focus of heavy rainfall may develop over the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley, continuing the flood threat into early next week.
Heat Surge: Finally, after an unseasonably cool spring, the Southeast interior will see a surge of heat once skies clear – highs reaching the upper 80s to mid-90s (the warmest of the year so far) across Alabama, Georgia, and inland Carolinas by Sunday-Monday. Heat index values could approach 100°F in places, though coastal sections will stay cooler due to clouds and rain.
☔️Northeast Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↑
The Northeast will experience a volatile late-week weather pattern.
A wavy frontal system approaching from the west will tap Atlantic moisture and produce widespread showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through the weekend. Heavy downpours are likely, especially in the interior Northeast and Appalachians on Friday-Saturday, as the front slows. Localized flash flooding is possible in urban and poor-drainage areas – rainfall totals of 2–4 inches could occur in swaths from the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania/New York and New England.
By Sunday, the cold front will push offshore, bringing drier and cooler conditions to the Mid-Atlantic and New England.
Heat: Before the frontal passage, much of the Northeast will briefly heat up under a southwesterly flow. Major East Coast cities from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia and New York may reach the upper 80s °F (and low 90s in the Mid-Atlantic) on Friday, marking the first true summer-like heat of the year.
🔥Past-Week Incidents
South Florida Flooding: Earlier this week, South Florida was swamped by torrential rain as a stalled front dumped intense rainfall. From June 2–3, parts of the Miami metro saw flash flooding, with inundated streets and underpasses. This heavy rain provided short-term drought relief (South Florida had been in severe drought) but caused localized damage and disruptions. Rainfall totals of 4–7″ were common, and flood advisories remained in effect into Tuesday.
Southwest Wildfire – Fort Stanton, NM: In late May, an early-season wildfire broke out in drought-stricken southern New Mexico. On May 26, the “Cook’s Peak/Camp Fire” (near the historic Fort Stanton site) rapidly spread, scorching ~3 km² (~1.2 sq mi) of brush and timber. The blaze forced evacuations of campgrounds and a ranch, and it destroyed several historic structures on the Fort Stanton property.
☀️Significant Upcoming Changes
Temperature Outlook (2 Weeks): The 2-week outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures for most of the United States. After mid-June, a broad upper-level ridge is expected to dominate much of the central and eastern CONUS, leading to warmer-than-average conditions from the Rockies to the East Coast. The only exceptions may be the West Coast and parts of the Southeast, where onshore flow and soil moisture keep temperatures near seasonal norms.
Precipitation Outlook: Drier-than-normal conditions are anticipated in certain regions over the next month. The Northwest and Northern Rockies are forecast to see below-average precipitation into late June. The Great Lakes and Upper Midwest also lean drier than normal as summer high pressure expands. In contrast, a swath of the southern and eastern U.S. is signaling wetter-than-normal. The Week 3–4 Outlook highlights enhanced odds of above-average rainfall from the Southern Plains eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic.
🌀Anniversary
June 5–10, 2001 – Tropical Storm Allison: Stalling over the Gulf Coast, this storm became one of the most destructive tropical rain events on record. Allison made landfall in Texas on June 5, 2001, then lingered for days, dumping an astonishing 30–40 inches of rainfall over the Houston, TX area, causing 41 fatalities, and approximately $5–$9 billion in damage. Notably, Allison is the only tropical storm in U.S. history to have its name retired without ever reaching hurricane strength.
Safety & Security | Risk Level: Elevated & →
🧡Upcoming Protests and Rallies
June 6 (Washington, D.C.): A veteran-led “Unite for Veterans” rally on the National Mall (2–5 p.m.) will protest VA staffing cuts, with organizers expecting around 20,000 attendees.
June 6–8 (Nationwide): Wear Orange gun violence awareness events will take place in many cities as part of National Gun Violence Awareness Day (June 6) and the ensuing weekend. Rallies, walks, and vigils organized by Everytown/Moms Demand Action are scheduled across the country.
🐎A Few Upcoming Events
WorldPride 2025 (Washington, D.C.): The Capital Pride/WorldPride festival concludes this weekend with a massive parade (June 7) and street festival (June 8) marking D.C.’s 50th Pride anniversary. Hundreds of thousands of participants are expected over three weeks of events.
CMA Fest (Nashville, TN, June 5–8): The annual Country Music Association Festival at Nissan Stadium is underway, drawing roughly 90,000 fans per day.
Belmont Stakes (Elmont, NY, June 7): The 155th Belmont Stakes horse race (final leg of the Triple Crown) will be held with tens of thousands of spectators expected.
🇮🇱Significant Incidents (Past 7 Days)
Boulder Firebomb Attack: On June 1, a man armed with a makeshift flamethrower and Molotov cocktails attacked a peaceful pro-Israeli-hostage demonstration on Boulder’s Pearl Street Mall. Twelve people were injured in the fiery assault. Authorities say the suspect had planned the attack for over a year, targeting what he called a “Zionist” group; he now faces federal hate crime charges and 16 counts of attempted murder. The FBI is treating the incident as an act of terrorism.
Philadelphia, PA Mass Shooting (May 26): A Memorial Day shooting in Fairmount Park left two young adults dead and nine others wounded after multiple gunmen opened fire on a holiday crowd.
Israel Embassy Shoting - Washington, D.C. (May 18): Investigators continue to probe the shooting that killed two employees of Israel’s Embassy outside the Capital Jewish Museum. The attack, which came with little warning, has led federal agencies to warn that extremist actors could seek to target public events and symbolic dates.
🪖Looking Ahead (Next 30 Days)
June 14 – Army Anniversary Parade & Protests: The U.S. Army plans a major parade in Washington, D.C. with ~6,600 troops, 150 vehicles, and flyovers to mark its 250th birthday. The event coincides with President Trump’s 79th birthday.
“No Kings Day” Nationwide Protests (June 14): A coordinated national day of protest against authoritarianism and perceived abuses of power is set for Flag Day (June 14). Demonstrations branded “No Kings Day” are planned in all 50 states.
Late June – Supreme Court Decisions: The Supreme Court’s term ends in late June, with several high-profile rulings due that could spark protests. Pending cases include a challenge to transgender youth medical bans(Tennessee’s law) and other contentious issues. The most controversial opinions often drop in the last days of June; advocacy groups on both sides are preparing demonstrations in D.C. and major cities once decisions are announced.
July 4 – Independence Day: The nation’s Independence Day celebrations will involve large crowds at fireworks shows, parades, and concerts from coast to coast. A recent joint DHS/FBI intelligence bulletin warns that violent extremists of various ideologies have historically eyed major holidays and crowded events as potential targets. While no specific threat is known, federal authorities advise local partners to remain vigilant around July 4th events, and many cities are likely to elevate their alert posture (e.g. visible tactical units, bomb-sniffing dogs, drone restrictions) for the holiday.
🔫Anniversaries
June 5, 2014 – Seattle Pacific University Shooting: A lone gunman opened fire inside a Seattle Pacific University hall, killing one student and wounding two others before a student heroically subdued him with pepper spray.
June 10, 2009 – U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum Shooting: An 88-year-old white supremacist opened fire at the Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C., killing a security officer at the entrance before being wounded and arrested.
Health & Medical | Risk Level: Low & →
😷Disease Outbreak Status
Respiratory Illnesses: Nationally, COVID-19, flu, and RSV metrics are at very low levels.
Measles: Nationally, cases have increased in the last two weeks and the CDC reports 1,088 measles cases across 18 states.
Food-borne Illnesses: May saw 3 new foodborne outbreaks for Salmonella in cucumbers, listeria in “Ready-to-Eat” foods, and Salmonella in Backyard Poultry.
Travel Health: As summer travel begins, the CDC is monitoring international disease threats (e.g., dengue in the Caribbean, malaria in Africa). There’s no change in travel guidance this week apart from routine CDC travel notices.
💉Public Health Emergencies
Opioid Overdose Epidemic: The United States remains in the grip of the opioid overdose epidemic, but there are signs of a turning point. For the first time in decades, overdose deaths are declining nationally. Specifically, fatal fentanyl overdoses fell in every state in the past year. Despite this improvement, the numbers are still staggering: an estimated ~75,000 Americans died of opioid ODs in 2024.
💨Environmental Health
Air Quality (Wildfire Smoke): Compared to last year’s disastrous wildfire smoke incursions, the current outlook is better. Thanks in part to weather patterns, the U.S. has not yet experienced major smoke episodes in 2025. That said, wildfire season is unfolding and smoke has begun entering the U.S. this week.
Allergens: It’s peak allergy season in much of the country. This week, grass pollen is dominant in northern states and some tree pollen still in New England. Mold spores rising in humid Southeast. Healthcare providers are seeing increased OTC allergy med usage but nothing beyond seasonal norms.
🩺Anniversaries
June 5, 1981 – First AIDS Report: 44 years ago, the CDC published the first report on what would be known as AIDS marking the beginning of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
Cybersecurity | Risk Level: Elevated & →
🏥A Few Past‑Week Cyber Incidents
Hospital Breach in Maine & New Hampshire. Three hospitals run by Catholic healthcare organization Covenant Health are dealing with a cyberattack that forced the facilities to shut off all access to data systems. In response, they immediately discontinued access to all data systems in their hospitals, clinics, and provider practices.
City of Abilene, TX Ransomware: The City of Abilene disclosed details of an April 18 ransomware attack that forced a shutdown of city IT systems. Attackers encrypted servers and stole an estimated 477 GB of data, demanding ransom by May 27 – a demand the city refused to pay. As of May 28, officials reported no evidence that residents’ information has been misused, and recovery efforts are ongoing.
Victoria’s Secret Website Outage: Retailer Victoria’s Secret took down its online shopping website and some in-store services due to a security incident that is under investigation. The company’s CEO warned employees that “recovery is going to take a while,” as external experts assess the impact. While stores remain open, online operations were halted as a precaution. (This incident comes amid a surge of cyberattacks on major retailers in recent months.)
See a list of cyberattacks in May 2025, targeting just about every sector.
🛜Current National Threats
State-Sponsored Espionage: Microsoft warns of a Russia-affiliated threat actor dubbed “Void Blizzard” using sophisticated phishing – mimicking Microsoft login sites – to breach scores of targets (over 20 NGOs, government, and defense organizations) in North America and Europe. Once inside, the hackers steal large volumes of emails and files (even Microsoft Teams messages) for intelligence, focusing on NATO countries that support Ukraine.
Info-Stealer Malware (LummaC2): FBI and CISA issued a joint advisory that threat actors are deploying information-stealing malware against U.S. critical infrastructure sectors. The malware infiltrates networks and exfiltrates sensitive data; infections have been observed as recently as May 2025, underscoring the ongoing risk.
Supply Chain Exploits: Researchers report that the “Everest Group” cybercriminal gang is stealing HR data from organizations by exploiting a third-party provider for SAP’s cloud-based SuccessFactors HR platform. Multiple companies in Europe (and potentially the U.S.) have had employee records and payroll data leaked in this extortion campaign.
🔐Significant Upcoming Changes (30 Days)
Microsoft Authenticator Password Deprecation: Microsoft will retire the password autofill feature in its Authenticator mobile app by August 2025. Starting June 2025, users can no longer save new passwords in Authenticator, and by July the autofill function will stop. The app is now displaying full-screen warnings urging users to export their saved passwords before July 1.
👩💻Anniversaries (June 4–10)
June 4, 2015 – OPM Data Breach: The U.S. Office of Personnel Management announced a massive breach compromising personnel and security-clearance records of 22.1 million people. This remains one of the largest U.S. government data breaches, with information (including SSNs, addresses, and records of employees and applicants) stolen by Chinese state-sponsored hackers.
June 5, 2012 – LinkedIn Hack: LinkedIn was hacked on this day, resulting in the theft of hashed passwords for approximately 6.5 million user accounts. Years later, it was revealed that the breach actually impacted over 100 million accounts, underscoring how initial estimates of breach scope can grow over time.
Critical Infrastructure | Risk Level: Moderate & →
🔌Utility Status
Grid capacity remains adequate nationwide, even under early summer heat.
A late-May heatwave shattered May electricity demand records in Texas – yet the grid met demand without outages, and forecasts show sufficient reserves going forward.
The North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s summer reliability assessment finds most regions prepared for normal peak conditions, though parts of the Midwest and South could see tight margins in extreme heat.
🚚Supply-Chain Alerts
National supply chains are fluid. Ports and trucking are no longer experiencing the backlogs seen in 2021–22. Rail freight volumes are slightly below last year (per AAR data), which has freed capacity; railroads report meeting shipping demand with fewer crew shortages.
Trucking is coping with high demand but abundant driver availability; the spot freight rates have stabilized, and there are no major strikes or protests disrupting freight.
One area to watch: the Mississippi River’s water level. The Upper Mississippi is trending low due to spring dryness, which could revive barge draft restrictions later in summer (last fall’s low-water constraints slowed grain exports).
🚧Anniversaries
June 5, 1976: The Teton Dam in Idaho catastrophically failed. Releasing a flood that destroyed communities and caused $1 billion in damage, the disaster led to today’s dam safety regulations.
June 11, 2023: I-95’s collapse in Philadelphia. A tanker truck carrying gasoline caught fire beneath an overpass in Northeast Philadelphia. The extreme heat caused the northbound lanes to collapse and damaged the southbound lanes, closing roughly nine miles in both directions. The swift construction of a temporary roadway enabled traffic to resume less than two weeks after the fire.
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