U.S. Situation Report | 08.13.2025
Your Weekly Forward-Looking Intelligence Brief from The CP Journal's Watch Office
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Here are the highlights of the week ahead. Scroll down for a deeper analysis and the sources of information. Remember: this report is intended for situational awareness, and readers should validate any information before acting.
📈Weather: Overall, the United States faces a multi-hazard environment in the week ahead. Dangerous heat remains entrenched over large portions of the South and Central U.S., demanding continued vigilance for heat-related health impacts. At the same time, wildfire threats persist in the West amid dry, windy conditions, even as some areas get relief from an unusual Pacific storm. Parts of the Midwest and Southeast are bracing for heavy rainfall and potential flooding from slow-moving storms. Finally, eyes are on the Atlantic tropics with a developing system that could graze the East Coast.
🔫Safety & Security: Overall, the United States faces a dynamic security landscape this week, characterized by planned mass protests, a high-level international summit, and the lingering effects of recent violent incidents. Despite the array of activities and risks, there are no specific, credible threats known at this time.
😷Health & Medical: Nationally, the public health landscape is active but manageable. COVID-19 is trending upward but remains far below crisis levels. Seasonal threats like West Nile virus and extreme heat are at their peak, requiring continued precautions. The next seven days call for vigilance against summer’s hazards (heat, mosquitoes, and poor air quality).
👀Cybersecurity: Cyber threat activity remains heightened nationwide, with federal authorities urging continued vigilance amid state-sponsored hacking alerts and active ransomware operations. While no acute local threats are known at present, there continues to be the steady background threat of ransomware and data breaches observed nationwide, warranting consistent network monitoring and user security awareness.
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In-Depth Analysis
Weather Outlook
🌵West Region | Risk Level: Elevated & →
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: A prolonged dry heat continues to elevate wildfire danger. Red Flag Warnings (critical fire weather alerts) are in effect in parts of the Mountain West – for example, southwestern Wyoming – where low humidity (~12%), hot temperatures, and gusty winds (30+ mph) are creating erratic fire behavior conditions. Multiple days of hot, dry, and windy weather across the Four Corners, Great Basin, and Rockies are keeping fire weather concerns high.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: Monsoonal thunderstorms will persist each afternoon over the Southwest mountains (Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah/Colorado). These storms are generally hit-or-miss, but where they form they could produce torrential downpours on steep terrain or recent burn scar areas. Isolated flash flooding is possible in those vulnerable spots.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: The Pacific Northwest will see an unusual late-summer storm system toward the end of the week. A moderately strong cold front is expected to sweep in by Friday/Saturday, bringing appreciable rainfall and much cooler temperatures to western Washington and Oregon.
⛈️Midwest Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↑
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: A stalled frontal boundary will bring rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes especially late week into the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center highlights the flash flooding threat – repeated downpours could drop several inches of rain over saturated ground from eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin into Michigan.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: The central Plains and Upper Midwest also face periods of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-2 Outlook has a Slight Risk on Wednesday for parts of the eastern Dakotas into northern Nebraska. An organized cluster of storms could develop by Wednesday evening, producing damaging winds (60+ mph) across South Dakota and into Minnesota.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: A dome of oppressive heat and humidity will grip much of the Midwest through the first part of this outlook. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s °F are expected from the central Plains (Kansas, Missouri) to the Ohio Valley, with heat index values around 100–105 °F in places. These conditions have prompted Heat Advisories from Iowa and Illinois to Indiana and Ohio. The NWS HeatRisk index is reaching “Moderate” to “Major” levels across the Corn Belt into the Great Lakes.
🥵South Region | Risk Level: Severe & →
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: A dangerous heat wave remains the dominant hazard across the Southern Plains. Much of Texas and Oklahoma will continue to bake under triple-digit temperatures, with little to no rainfall for relief. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings blanket the region. Overnight lows in the 80s provide minimal cooling. This prolonged heat is stressing power grids and posing health risks.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: Dryness and drought continue to plague parts of the South. Portions of central and south Texas are in severe to extreme drought, which combined with the ongoing heat, keeps wildfire risk elevated. Fire Weather Watches may be issued on days when winds pick up – single-digit humidity levels and gusty winds have occasionally been observed, creating near Red Flag conditions.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: Along the Gulf Coast interior (LA, MS), the air remains oppressively humid. Scattered thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon heating each day, especially near coastal and bayou areas. While these storms are generally routine, they can bring torrential downpours and frequent lightning locally.
🌡️Southeast Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↑
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: A very warm and humid air mass blankets the Southeast. Daytime highs will routinely reach the lower to mid-90s °F from Alabama across Georgia into the Carolinas, with heat indices around 100 °F in many areas. Florida, in particular, will see tropical humidity making it feel like 105 °F at times by midday. While not record-breaking, this level of heat stress can be dangerous for those without adequate cooling or who must work outdoors.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: Slow-moving thunderstorms and downpours are expected to concentrate over the southern Appalachian region and interior Southeast later this week. A lingering trough and high moisture will fuel multiple days of rain over eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina. The NWS warns of localized flash flooding, especially in mountain valleys and urban areas, where 2–4″ of rain could fall over a short period. Recent soil saturation in parts of eastern TN/NC means any additional heavy rain may quickly trigger runoff issues and landslides.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: Tropical development is a growing concern toward the end of the period. Tropical Storm Erin, currently over the central Atlantic, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track west-northwest in the coming days. By early next week (around Aug 18–19), Erin could be near the Bahamas and Southeast U.S. coast, potentially strengthening cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. While there is high uncertainty in the exact track and intensity, portions of the Carolinas and Georgia coast should be alert. Even if the storm stays offshore, increasing surf and dangerous rip currents are likely along Atlantic beaches, and outer rainbands could brush the coast with heavy rain and gusty winds.
🌡️Northeast Region | Risk Level: Elevated & →
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: The Northeast will experience a two-part pattern: oppressive heat midweek, then a sharp cooldown. Through Thursday (Aug 14), much of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England will see above-normal heat – highs well into the upper 80s and 90s °F, with high humidity making it feel near 100 °F. Urban centers like Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City could see heat indices around 100 °F. This burst of heat is relatively short-lived but could be the hottest stretch of the summer for some interior Northeast locales. By late Friday, however, a strong cold front will sweep through.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: As the cold front pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Friday, it will trigger a line of showers and thunderstorms. While severe weather is not explicitly forecast to be widespread, a few storms could be strong – capable of brief downpours, gusty winds (30–50 mph), and frequent lightning. Once the front passes, a markedly cooler and drier air mass moves in for the weekend. Daytime highs will drop to the 70s/low-80s °F for much of the region by Sunday, with low humidity and refreshing overnight lows in the 50s – a welcome relief from the recent muggy conditions.
7-Day Outlook & Hazards: Marine and coastal hazards might emerge late in the period due to the Atlantic tropical system. If Tropical Storm Erin tracks near the East Coast, the Mid-Atlantic coastline (especially coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and up through New Jersey) could see high surf and dangerous rip currents developing by Monday or Tuesday. At this time, direct impacts (heavy rain or strong winds inland) are not certain – it will depend on whether Erin curves out to sea or edges closer to land.
🌧️Significant Incidents
Historic Midwest Flooding – Over the past week, a stalled storm system produced extreme rainfall across the central U.S., with record floods in the Upper Midwest. Parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Wisconsin saw 8–14+ inches of rain in just 48 hours. The Milwaukee, WI area was hit hardest: up to 14″ of rain fell by Aug 10, including 5.7″ in a few hours Saturday night, making it the city’s second-wettest day on record.
🥵Looking Ahead
Late-August Heat Pattern: Looking ahead, federal forecasters predict a continuation of above-normal temperatures for much of the United States into the latter half of August. The Week 3–4 Outlook (valid Aug 23 – Sep 5) heavily favors warmer than average conditions nationwide, particularly under a sprawling high-pressure ridge expected over the interior U.S.
Late-August Precipitation Trends: Rainfall forecasts for the next 3–4 weeks show regional disparities. The Climate Prediction Center highlights a couple of areas that may buck the summer dryness: above-normal precipitation is slightly favored along the Gulf Coast (from Texas east to Florida), likely due to very warm Gulf sea-surface temperatures. The Desert Southwest (Arizona/New Mexico) also leans toward wetter than normal conditions in late August, consistent with an active monsoon pattern continuing. In contrast, much of the Midwest and parts of the Northeast are projected to trend drier than normal. One wild card is the tropics: a single tropical storm or hurricane could drastically alter rainfall totals in any given region (something not fully captured in the probabilistic outlook).
🌀Anniversaries
Hurricane Camille: On August 17, 1969, Hurricane Camille slammed into the Mississippi Gulf Coast as the second of only four Category 5 hurricanes ever to hit the U.S. mainland. Camille made landfall with estimated sustained winds of 175 mph and an astonishing 24-foot storm surge. In total, Camille was responsible for 259 deaths and about $1.4 billion in damage (1969 USD), making it the costliest U.S. hurricane up to that point.
Safety & Security | Risk Level: Elevated & →
🪧Upcoming Protests, Rallies, and Possible Threats
Nationwide “Fight the Trump Takeover” Protests: A coalition of activist and labor groups has organized a national day of protests across at least 20 states on Aug 16 to oppose President Donald Trump’s efforts to redraw electoral maps in Texas and other states. Dozens of rallies are planned nationwide (with a flagship rally at the Texas State Capitol in Austin), and organizers warn of potential transportation disruptions near protest sites.
“Stop Starving Gaza” Mass March in New York City: Pro-Palestine groups will hold an Emergency Mass March at Bryant Park (New York Public Library steps) to protest the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Over 100 organizations have joined this effort, which is expected to draw thousands of participants from across the country.
🇷🇺A Few Upcoming Events
U.S.–Russia Summit in Alaska: President Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug 15 to discuss the war in Ukraine. This high-profile summit is the first U.S.–Russia leaders’ meeting since 2021.
South Korea–U.S. Summit (Washington, D.C.): In late August, President Trump will host South Korean President Lee Jae-myung at the White House for their first bilateral summit. Discussions will center on strengthening the U.S.–ROK defense alliance and economic partnership, amid ongoing North Korean threats.
Burning Man Festival: The annual Burning Man festival will take place Aug. 25 – Sep. 1 in Nevada’s remote Black Rock Desert. Approximately 70,000 participants are anticipated. The 2025 Burning Man comes after 2024’s unprecedented rainstorms stranded attendees.
UN General Assembly: From September 9th to the 23rd, the UN General Assembly will convene in New York City.
🔫Significant Incidents
Shooting at CDC Headquarters in Atlanta, GA: On Aug 8, a gunman opened fire outside the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters (adjacent to Emory University), killing a DeKalb County police officer who responded to the scene. The 30-year-old shooter fired multiple rounds into the CDC campus, shattering windows and forcing a temporary lockdown of the CDC and university facilities. The shooter was later found dead (authorities believe he died from a self-inflicted gunshot) on the second floor of a nearby building after exchanging fire with police.
Mass Shooting at Austin, TX Retail Store: On Aug 11, a gunman opened fire randomly in a Target store parking lot in North Austin, killing three people – including a 4-year-old child and her grandfather – and injuring another. The 32-year-old suspect fled after the shooting, carjacked two vehicles, and led police on a city-wide pursuit before being captured roughly 20 miles away. Austin’s police chief stated the attacker had a history of mental illness and no clear motive, describing the act as an “unprovoked…deliberate act of violence” against random victims in a public place.
Federalization of Washington, D.C. Law Enforcement: President Trump declared a “crime emergency” in D.C., placing local police under DOJ control and deploying approximately 800 National Guard troops—prompting protests from residents and criticism from Mayor Bowser.
Judicial Review of Troop Deployment to Los Angeles: A federal judge began hearing a case on whether the Trump administration broke federal law by deploying National Guard and Marine forces to Los Angeles amid immigration-related protests—indicating legal scrutiny over precedent-setting internal security deployments.
Health & Medical | Risk Level: Moderate & ↑
🌡️Significant Incidents
Heat: A significant portion of the U.S. population has been under heat advisories, and heat index values of 105–115 °F have been common in the South. Prolonged heat can exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory conditions.
😷Disease Outbreak Status
West Nile Virus: Mosquito-borne virus season is peaking. West Nile virus activity has been reported in at least 29 states so far. As of last week, 219 human WNV cases have been confirmed across the U.S., including 119 neuroinvasive (serious) cases. States in the Midwest and West are hardest hit – for example, Colorado, Arizona, Illinois, and Texas have all reported multiple cases, which is on track with a typical summer: the CDC recorded 1,791 cases and 164 deaths nationwide last year. Officials expect case counts to rise through August.
Respiratory Illnesses: A summer COVID-19 surge is underway nationally, though at nowhere near past emergency levels. Wastewatever activity is increasing, primarily across the South and the Western portions of the United States. While absolute numbers remain low, infections are on the rise in 45 states (as of Aug 8). A new variant (NB.1.8.1) is gaining traction, comprising an estimated one-third of cases, though no evidence yet of increased severity.
💨Environmental Health
Air Quality: Wildfire smoke continues to pose a coast-to-coast hazard. So far this year has seen unprecedented smoke transport into the U.S. from Canadian wildfires (June’s smoke in the Northeast was a stark example). The EPA’s AirNow maps (pictured above) show pockets of “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”AQI.
📞Looking Ahead
Telehealth Policy: Absent Congressional action, key telehealth flexibilities will expire on September 30, 2025. This could restrict Medicare’s coverage of telehealth visits (reinstating pre-pandemic rules like requiring rural location and in-clinic presence). Clarity on this should emerge in the next 30 days, as healthcare systems prepare fallback plans if needed (e.g., shifting telehealth patients to in-person visits).
🦟Anniversaries
2012 West Nile Outbreak in Texas: In August 2012, Dallas County, Texas declared a local state of emergency due to an explosive West Nile virus outbreak. By mid-August 2012, Dallas had recorded 200+ cases and 10 deaths, prompting aerial mosquito spraying for the first time in decades. Ultimately, 2012 was one of the worst West Nile years on record in the U.S. (nearly 300 deaths nationwide).
Cybersecurity | Risk Level: Moderate & →
👩🏽⚖️A Few Past‑Week Cyber Incidents
U.S. Federal Courts Breach: The federal judiciary revealed a sophisticated cyberattack on its case management system, potentially exposing sealed court records in multiple states. The Administrative Office of U.S. Courts said it has shut down affected systems after detecting persistent intrusion activity.
Microsoft SharePoint Zero‑Day Spree: Over 400 organizations – including U.S. government agencies (Energy, Homeland Security, HHS) and California’s electric grid operator – were compromised via two newly discovered SharePoint software zero-day flaws. Microsoft reported Chinese state-linked hacker groups exploited these vulnerabilities in July, with one group deploying ransomware on government networks.
Google Ads Data Breach: Google confirmed a breach of one of its Salesforce cloud databases holding Google Ads customer leads, exposing business contact info (names, phone numbers, notes) of prospective advertisers. The ShinyHunters hacker group claims it stole ~2.55 million records and attempted to extort Google for 20 Bitcoin (≈$2.3M), though Google says no ransom was paid.
🎓Current Threats
Ransomware Campaigns: Federal agencies issued a #StopRansomware advisory for the emerging “InterLock” ransomware, which has hit U.S. organizations as recently as June 2025. The FBI and CISA provided technical details and indicators of compromise for InterLock, urging all sectors to patch vulnerabilities and enforce offline backups.
Exchange Server Vulnerability: A high-severity flaw in on-premises Microsoft Exchange email servers, disclosed at Black Hat, poses a “grave risk” to organizations using hybrid Exchange configurations if unpatched. CISA issued an emergency directive requiring federal agencies to apply Microsoft’s fixes and remove unsupported servers by Aug. 11.
K–12 Cyber Awareness (Back-to-School): As schools reopen across Southern California in late August, authorities are highlighting a 30-day heightened cyber threat window. Historically, the new school year brings a surge in phishing and ransomware targeting school districts, parents, and students.
ℹ️Looking Ahead
Cyber Info-Sharing Law Sunset: The federal Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015 is set to expire on September 30, 2025, unless Congress renews it. This law facilitates threat intelligence sharing between government and industry (including K-12 schools). Its lapse could leave school districts and local agencies with reduced early warning about cyber threats, at a time when attacks on the education sector are rising (23% increase in ransomware on schools in H1 2025 vs H1 2024). There are bipartisan efforts in Congress to extend the law.
Cyber Firewall Upgrades: New York State’s recent “Firewall Against Cyberattacks” initiative (signed Aug 4) requires all municipal corporations and public authorities to report cybersecurity incidents to the New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services within 72 hours and to provide notice of any ransomware payment within 24 hours.
🪱Anniversaries
Zotob Worm: On August 16, 2005, major U.S. media outlets (CNN, ABC News, The New York Times) were hit by the Zotob worm, which exploited a Windows 2000 Plug-and-Play flaw. Infected systems rebooted repeatedly, disrupting newsroom operations.
Shamoon Malware: On August 15, 2012, the Shamoon virus was unleashed on Saudi Aramco, wiping data on about 30,000 company workstations and disrupting the world’s largest oil producer for more than a week. A hacktivist group claimed responsibility, and the attack – one of the most destructive corporate cyber incidents to date – exposed the reality of malware capable of destroying critical infrastructure data.