U.S. Situation Report | 08.20.2025
Your Weekly Forward-Looking Intelligence Brief from The CP Journal's Watch Office
The convergence of threats rarely shows up on a dashboard. Here’s why human judgment remains the decisive factor in acting on situation reports.
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Here are the highlights of the week ahead. Scroll down for a deeper analysis and the sources of information. Remember: this report is intended for situational awareness, and readers should validate any information before acting.
📈Weather: Over the next week, the nation will be dealing with a combination of late-summer hazards – a dangerous heat wave and elevated wildfire risk in the West, heavy rainfall with localized flooding in parts of the South, and continued vigilance for tropical storm impacts along the Southeast/East Coast – even as the first hints of autumn’s cooler air begin to appear in the North. See below for the detailed forecasts for each region.
🗑️Safety & Security: Despite a packed Safety and Security section, with upcoming protests, ongoing strikes, and a suspicious powder scare at an ICE facility (all discussed below), the risk level remains moderate and unchanged from last week. Most past and known future events are localized. Yet the events underscore persistent security challenges for communities across the country.
🦟Health & Medical: The United States is managing multiple concurrent health concerns: a summer COVID-19 uptick (widespread but milder illness), extreme heat, and an increase in West Nile Virus cases across the country. This week also notes the anniversary of the first WNV case in the U.S. in 1999 (more details below).
🧀Cybersecurity: The overall cybersecurity risk at the national level is elevated and unchanged from last week. A high volume of attacks (ransomware, state-sponsored espionage, data breaches) continues to target U.S. government agencies and businesses, including an attack on PA’s Attorney General’s Office and attacks on unpatched known vulnerabilities.
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In-Depth Analysis
Weather Outlook
🥵West Region | Risk Level: Severe & ↑
An intense heat wave will grip the Southwest mid to late week. Record-challenging high temperatures (exceeding 110 °F in desert areas) are forecast, with Extreme Heat Warnings in effect Wednesday through Friday in Arizona and southeast California.
Monsoonal moisture is increasing across the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through the weekend, with locally heavy downpours over the higher terrain and desert washes. While this rainfall will be spotty, it could trigger flash flooding near burn scars, arroyos, and urban areas in the Southwest (e.g. Arizona and New Mexico).
An upper-level ridge builds over the Northwest late in the period, bringing abnormally hot, dry conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies by Tuesday (Aug 26), with some locations approaching excessive heat thresholds. The strong high pressure and a tightening pressure gradient may also generate gusty winds extending into northern California, elevating the wildfire spread potential.
📉Midwest Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↓
A pattern change is bringing relief to the Midwest. A cold front that crossed the region early this week has ushered in cooler, less humid air. This follows several rounds of severe storms late last week into Monday; intense thunderstorms on Aug 16–18 produced torrential rainfall (over 7 inches in spots) and flash flooding in parts of Illinois and Indiana. With the front now to the south, no further widespread severe weather is anticipated in the Midwest for the remainder of the week.
Unlike the West, the Midwest is not facing extreme heat during this period. The intense heat dome that affected the region in the short-range is breaking down, and temperatures will moderate to near or slightly below normal by the weekend.
🌡️South Region | Risk Level: Elevated & →
The Southern tier remains in a heat emergency. High temperatures in the upper 90s °F combined with Gulf humidity are yielding heat index values of 108–113 °F across parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect through at least Wednesday evening for many areas.
A slow-moving frontal boundary is sagging into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing much-needed rain but also the risk of flooding. Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain (1–3 inches in a short period) will develop from eastern Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas each day through Thursday. While severe weather is unlikely, some storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning in addition to downpours.
Early next week (Aug 25–26), an influx of deep Gulf moisture may set the stage for renewed heavy rainfall over portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. While this rain would be beneficial for areas experiencing developing drought, there is a concern for flooding if multiple storms traverse the same areas.
🌀Southeast Region | Risk Level: Elevated & ↑
Hurricane Erin will stay offshore of the U.S. East Coast, but its presence is already affecting the Southeast coastline. Large ocean swells and long-period waves generated by Erin will lead to high surf and dangerous rip currents along Atlantic beaches from Florida up through the Carolinas this week. Portions of the Outer Banks in North Carolina have seen evacuations of tourists due to expected coastal flooding and 15-foot surf overwashing roads.
Eyes are also on the tropics for a new system that could approach the Southeast late in the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance now in the Atlantic with a medium (≈60%) chance of development in the next week. Some model scenarios bring this system westward toward the Southeast U.S. (either into the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near Florida/Georgia) by around Tuesday, Aug 26. While it is far too early to project specifics, residents along the Gulf and Southeast coasts should stay vigilant.
🌊Northeast Region | Risk Level: Moderate & →
The primary concern for the Northeast is along the coast, tied to Hurricane Erin’s offshore passage. Starting midweek, Erin’s expansive wind field will generate large swells impacting the Mid-Atlantic and New England shorelines. Beach communities from the Jersey Shore through Long Island up to Cape Cod should expect battering surf (waves of 10–15 feet in some areas) and an extended period of dangerous rip currents.
Otherwise, a relatively tranquil week is in store for the inland Northeast. No major storms or heat waves are anticipated. A weak system will cross the Mid-Atlantic and New England around Saturday, bringing scattered showers or a thunderstorm in spots (but only light to moderate rainfall totals). In its wake, a cooler and drier air mass of Canadian origin will settle in in time for early next week.
🔥Significant Incidents
Midwest Flash Floods: Significant severe weather struck parts of the Midwest late last week. Between August 16–18, multiple rounds of thunderstorms rolled through northern Illinois and Indiana, prompting tornado warnings and flash flood emergencies. Rainfall totals exceeded 7 inches in some Chicago suburbs , leading to inundated roads and water rescues. Power outages peaked around 8,700 customers in the Chicago area during the storms.
Western Wildfires: There are currently 47 large wildfires burning nationwide, with over 15,000 firefighters deployed for suppression efforts. Fire managers report gradual improvements as weather conditions become more favorable and containment increases. Still, several communities in Montana, Idaho, Oregon, and northern California remain under evacuation notices due to nearby fires.
Hurricane Erin: The first major Atlantic hurricane of 2025, Hurricane Erin, rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane late last week. Erin skirted past the Caribbean and turned northward offshore of the U.S., but not before prompting precautionary evacuations in North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Monday.
🍁Looking Ahead
Cooler East, Warmer West: A significant pattern shift is expected as we transition into the end of August. Forecasters anticipate a rush of cooler, fall-like temperatures to areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Conversely, a resilient ridge of high pressure will persist out West – maintaining above-normal warmth, especially across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
On the precipitation side, there are hints of wetter-than-normal conditions in a few areas: the Desert Southwest (suggesting a continuation of monsoonal rains into early September), and parts of the Southeast U.S. (possibly reflecting the potential influence of tropical activity). Conversely, a drier-than-normal signal appears for the Great Basin and interior Northwest. It must be emphasized that forecast confidence is low and forecasters cite conflicting signals as reasons to treat the 3–4 week outlook with caution.
Tropical Wild Card: The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and this represents a major wild card for nationwide hazards in the next month. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring another disturbance in Hurricane Erin’s wake, with a ~60% chance of development in the next 7 days. While it’s far from certain, any such system could introduce heavy precipitation or high-wind hazards to the Gulf or Atlantic coasts in the weeks ahead.
🌀Anniversaries
Hurricane Harvey: On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas Gulf Coast (near Rockport) as a Category 4 hurricane and then stalled over the region, producing an unprecedented rainfall disaster. Harvey unloaded 60+ inches of rain over parts of southeast Texas over several days, making it the wettest tropical cyclone on U.S. record. Catastrophic flooding inundated the Houston metropolitan area – over 200,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and more than 30,000 people were displaced from their communities. Harvey caused an estimated $125 billion in damage (tied with Katrina for costliest U.S. storm) and was responsible for at least 89 direct deaths in Texas.
Safety & Security | Risk Level: Moderate & →
🗑️Upcoming Protests, Rallies, and Activism
Portland, OR ICE Protests on August 20th: As an example of nationwide ICE/immigration-oriented activism, activists plan to rally at Portland City Hall urging the city to revoke a local ICE detention center’s permit. The ICE facility has drawn regular protests; in July, demonstrators disrupted a City Council meeting demanding its closure.
Boeing’s Labor Strikes: The machinists’ strike at Boeing’s defense plants in the St. Louis, Missouri area continues into its third week after 3,200 workers walked off the job on Aug. 4 over a contract dispute. Picket lines persist at multiple Boeing facilities across the country.
Republic Services Strike: In Massachusetts, a trash-collector strike that began July 1 has left garbage piling up in over a dozen Boston-area communities and across the country. Massachusetts officials warn of public health risks from uncollected waste, Teamsters Local 25 has vowed to continue the strike until their wage and safety demands are met, and impacts from reciprocal strikes are felt in many states.
Labor Day Nationwide Actions: Labor and social justice groups allied with the “50/50/1” movement are planning a national day of protest on Labor Day (Sept. 1) called “Workers Over Billionaires.” Demonstrations advocating workers’ rights and economic equality are expected in all 50 states on that day.
🇺🇳A Few Upcoming Events
South Korea–U.S. Summit (Washington, D.C.): In late August, President Trump will host South Korean President Lee Jae-myung at the White House for their first bilateral summit. Discussions will center on strengthening the U.S.–ROK defense alliance and economic partnership, amid ongoing North Korean threats.
Burning Man Festival: The annual Burning Man festival will take place Aug. 25 – Sep. 1 in Nevada’s remote Black Rock Desert. Approximately 70,000 participants are anticipated. The 2025 Burning Man comes after 2024’s unprecedented rainstorms stranded attendees.
UN General Assembly: From September 9th to the 23rd, the UN General Assembly will convene in New York City.
✈️Significant Incidents
Air Canada Strike Ends: Air Canada and its flight attendants’ union reached a tentative deal on August 19, ending a four-day strike that canceled over 2,500 flights and stranded ~130,000 travelers daily. Service is restarting, but full operations will take 7–10 days, with continued cancellations/delays on U.S.–Canada routes. U.S. airports (e.g. SFO, JFK, ORD) experienced significant disruptions; passengers are being rebooked or refunded.
Brooklyn Nightclub Mass Shooting: A shooting at a crowded nightclub in the Crown Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn, NY, early on Aug. 17 left 3 people dead and 10 injured. Multiple gunmen opened fire inside the club following a dispute, firing over 40 rounds before fleeing. NYPD officials suspect gang involvement in the attack.
Suspicious Powder Scare in Manhattan: Five envelopes containing an unknown white powder were discovered in the mailroom of the ICE field office at 26 Federal Plaza in New York City on Aug. 14, prompting an evacuation of the federal building. Hazmat teams determined the substance was non-hazardous boric acid and not a biological or chemical threat. No injuries were reported. The FBI is treating the incident as a serious hoax and is investigating it as a federal crime, given that sending even inert powder to cause fear or disruption is illegal.
🔫Anniversaries
2020 Kenosha, WI Unrest: During protests following a police shooting, an armed teenager killed two people and injured a third. The demonstrations were marked by daily peaceful protesting followed by confrontations with law enforcement, rioting, and arson at night. A state of emergency was declared on August 23, and the National Guard was activated on the 24th. On August 25, a 17-year-old from Illinois, who had joined a group of armed civilians to protect businesses, opened fire after being attacked.
On-Air Journalists Killed: On August 26, 2015, TV reporter Alison Parker and cameraman Adam Ward were fatally shot during a live morning broadcast in Moneta, VA. The gunman was a former colleague at the news station who opened fire on the journalists in the middle of their live interview, while viewers watched. The attacker fled and died by suicide during a police chase later that day.
Health & Medical | Risk Level: Moderate & ↑
💉Disease Outbreak Status
Respiratory Viruses: A summer COVID-19 uptick is in progress across the United States. The CDC reports that as of mid-August, 45 states have rising or “likely increasing” infection rates as measured by ER visits and wastewater surveillance, with the highest concentrations of the virus in Western states. Health officials note this pattern of a late-summer bump has occurred in recent years. Importantly, each subsequent wave has seen fewer severe outcomes than the last, thanks to immunity and treatments. Seasonal Influenza is “very low” and decreasing, and RSV is “very low.”
Measles: The CDC’s website is pending an update with new data (we can give them a break following the shooting at their HQ), but the numbers had been consistently ticking downwards into the single digits (nationwide) over the past month. This week, Texas, the epicenter of this year’s outbreak, declared its measles outbreak over.
West Nile Virus (WNV): Late summer is peak season for mosquito-borne viruses, and WNV is being reported in 29 states, particularly across the Midwest, Plains, and West.
🦟Anniversaries
West Nile Virus in the U.S.: On August 23, 1999, the first U.S. cases of West Nile were reported in New York City. Initially baffling doctors (presenting as encephalitis), it was soon identified as West Nile – previously only seen in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. By late summer 1999, 7 people had died and dozens were ill. This anniversary is significant as it heralded a new era of mosquito-borne disease in the U.S. By 2003, West Nile had spread to 48 states. Since 1999, over 50,000 U.S. cases have been reported and more than 2,300 people have died from West Nile virus, becoming the nation’s leading cause of mosquito-borne disease.
Cybersecurity | Risk Level: Elevated & →
☎️A Few Past‑Week Cyber Incidents
Pennsylvania Attorney General’s Office Ransomware: A cyberattack knocked the office’s website, email, and phones offline last week. Notably, security experts found that the office’s network had unpatched Citrix NetScaler servers vulnerable to the “Citrix Bleed 2” flaw (CVE-2025-5777) on July 14th, which attackers have actively exploited since May. Federal agencies have ordered immediate patching of this bug due to evidence of ongoing attacks.
🔐Current Threats
Actively Exploited Unpatched Software Flaws: This week, CISA added a Trend Micro Apex One (an enterprise cybersecurity vulnerability management vendor) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. The flaw, an OS command injection, is under active attack and can enable remote code execution on Trend Micro antivirus servers. All organizations should prioritize patching these high-risk vulnerabilities, as federal guidelines require prompt remediation to blunt ongoing threats.
🏧Anniversaries
2014 JPMorgan Chase Data Breach: Mid-August 2014 marked the end of an attack that was discovered in July of that year and resulted in one of the largest bank breaches to date. Ultimately, 76 million households and 7 million small businesses were impacted. Nine other financial institutions were targeted as part of this attack.