U.S. Situation Report | 06.18.2025
Your Weekly Forward-Looking Intelligence Brief from The CP Journal's Watch Office
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Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
Here are the highlights of the week ahead. Scroll down for a deeper analysis and the sources of information for any specific section:
🌡️Weather: Extreme heat is emerging as the nation’s most widespread hazard this week, while severe storms and flooding remain active threats in select areas. Read the detailed analysis to see how your region will be impacted.
🫣Safety & Security: The combination of ongoing protest activity, recent extremist violence, and large public events justifies an elevated alert. While protest activity is significantly lower this weekend and there are no specific, credible threats identified, the posture should be one of caution and vigilance.
🌲Health & Medical: A moderate overall risk, though we encourage subscribers to watch for regional spikes that require localized response (measles containment, overdose prevention, etc.). As we enter summer, environmental health is worth noting as well.
📱Cybersecurity: Nationwide, the cyber threat posture remains elevated, highlighted by large-scale data breaches in the telecommunications sector and persistent ransomware/espionage activity, even as no new systemic crises emerged this week.
🔌Critical Infrastructure: Nationally, the infrastructure risk is elevated, primarily due to seasonal hazards on the horizon (extreme heat, storms). While current operations are relatively smooth, the risk of disruptive events is higher in summer (wildfires, hurricanes, high power demand), though no major new threats have emerged this week.
Remember: this report is intended for situational awareness, and readers should validate any information before acting.
In-Depth Analysis
Weather Outlook
🌡️West Region | Risk Level: Moderate & →
Heat Outlook: Excessive heat persists across the Desert Southwest. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for southern Arizona and inland California, with highs of 110–120°F expected in the hottest areas. Some relief arrives late week in the Pacific Northwest as a Pacific trough ushers in cooler air (temperatures dropping 10–20 °F below normal by Friday).
Wildfire Hazards: Elevated wildfire danger continues early in the week under hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Red Flag Warnings cover parts of southeast Arizona and western New Mexico. By Wednesday, an approaching storm system brings Elevated fire weather conditions to interior Oregon/Idaho.
Longer-Term: The Southwest monsoon has yet to fully commence; conditions remain broadly dry in the interior West. However, forecasts indicate a potential influx of subtropical moisture toward the Four Corners by early next week (linked to distant tropical activity off Mexico). This may introduce isolated thunderstorms in Arizona/New Mexico toward the end of the period, signaling the very early stages of monsoonal relief.
⛈️Midwest Region | Risk Level: Elevated & ↑
Thunderstorm Outlook: Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) for severe storms is in effect on Wednesday from Missouri and Illinois northeast into Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. This mid-week outbreak could bring widespread damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. As the jet stream shifts north, organized thunderstorm complexes may develop from the Dakotas/Minnesota on Friday and sweep through the Great Lakes by Saturday.
Heat Hazards: A dangerous heat wave is set to build across the Midwest. Starting Friday, an expanding high-pressure ridge will send temperatures soaring – mid to upper 90s°F are expected this weekend in the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley, with heat index values well over 100°F. The heat expands into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley by Sunday-Monday. NWS outlooks indicate this will be the first Major to Extreme heat event of the season, with heat stress conditions that can be life-threatening without precautions.
🌡️South Region | Risk Level: Moderate & ↓
7-Day Outlook: The weather pattern shifts to a more typical summer regime after last week’s storms. A quasi-stationary front along the Gulf Coast and Southeast will fuel daily scattered thunderstorms, especially in eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. These storms could produce locally heavy downpours (2–4 inches in a short period), leading to isolated flash flooding in vulnerable spots. However, unlike last week, severe thunderstorms should be limited.
Heat Hazards: Heat and humidity are intensifying. The Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will see a steady climb in temperatures through the week. By the weekend, much of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana will experience highs in the mid/upper 90s°F, with heat index values of 105–110°F in many areas.
Tropical influence: The National Hurricane Center is not tracking any Atlantic tropical cyclones threatening the U.S. this week.
⛈️Southeast Region | Risk Level: Moderate & →
Thunderstorm Activity: The Southeast will experience a continuation of typical summer thunderstorm activity. Ample Gulf and Atlantic moisture coupled with daytime heating will produce scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, especially across Florida, coastal Alabama/Georgia, and the Carolinas. These storms will be slow-moving at times, so localized flash flooding is possible in areas that see repeated downpours. Severe weather will be isolated at most – a few storms may briefly pulse to severe limits (strong winds) on any given day, but organized outbreaks are not expected.
Heat Outlook: Heat and humidity will steadily build across the Southeast. Temperatures will rise into the low-to-mid 90s°F across interior portions of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas by this weekend. When combined with high humidity (dew points in the mid-70s°F), heat index values will reach 100–105°F during peak afternoon hours. Urban areas from Nashville to Atlanta to Raleigh should prepare for oppressive conditions and possible Heat Advisories by Sunday.
🌡️Northeast Region | Risk Level: Elevated & ↑
Thunderstorm Activity: A late-week storm system will bring the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms from eastern Pennsylvania through New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and up into southern New York/New England. Then on Saturday, another round of storms is possible farther north, impacting upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania, and perhaps western New England with heavy rain and high winds.
Heat Outlook: A significant heat wave will begin building into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by the end of the week. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid-90s°F across the Mid-Atlantic (D.C. to Philadelphia corridor) by Friday and expand into New York and New England over the weekend. Humidity will be high (dew points near 70°F), yielding heat index values in the 100–105°F range. NWS forecasts suggest daily record highs could be challenged in parts of New England on Thursday. This will likely be the Northeast’s first heat wave of the season.
🌧️Significant Incidents
Record Rainfall & Deadly Flooding: Parts of the central U.S. experienced record-breaking early-summer rainfall over the past two weeks. This flooding led to fatalities in Texas and West Virginia.
Central/Southern Plains Severe Storms: Late last week, a destructive cluster of thunderstorms blasted parts of Texas and Oklahoma with hurricane-force straight-line winds and giant hail. Wind gusts over 100 mph were recorded (equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane), and grapefruit-sized hail caused extensive damage. Tens of thousands of customers lost power across the region.
Mid-Atlantic Storm Damage: On June 8, severe thunderstorms swept through the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia to South Carolina, toppling countless trees and knocking out power. The Washington, D.C. metro and central Virginia were hard-hit, with reports of two possible tornadoes in Virginia.
🌡️🛖Looking Ahead
Expanding Heat Dome & Shifting Pattern: The dominant change looking ahead is the expansion and migration of the heat dome. Over the next 2–4 weeks, the center of high pressure currently building over the Plains is forecast to shift westward, retrograding toward the Rockies by early July.
Onset of Monsoon & Wetter South: Long-range outlooks indicate that the North American Monsoon will likely begin in earnest as we head into late June and early July. This suggests an influx of moisture into Arizona, New Mexico, and surrounding areas – bringing the twin implications of much-needed drought relief and heightened flash flood risk (especially in burn scar areas or normally dry washes). Similarly, an above-normal rainfall signal is noted for the Southeast U.S. (Gulf Coast through Carolinas) during the next 3–4 weeks
🌧️Anniversaries
West Virginia Floods: Nine years ago, intense thunderstorms over West Virginia led to a historic flash flood event. On June 23, 2016, storms dropped over 7 inches of rain in a few hours on mountainous terrain. The resulting flash floods and river flooding killed 23 people statewide, making it one of the deadliest U.S. floods of the 2010s. A state of emergency was declared in 44 of 55 counties, and total damage exceeded $1.2 billion.
Safety & Security | Risk Level: Elevated & ↓
🪧Upcoming Protests and Rallies
While large-scale protests aren’t reported, organizations should stay alert for emergent activity for the following:
Reproductive Rights: Activists on both sides may rally around June 24, marking the third anniversary of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Immigration Enforcement: Continued immigration raids could trigger flash protests, especially in sanctuary jurisdictions, like they did in Los Angeles.
Anti-War & Foreign Policy: Advocacy groups are promoting scattered local protests related to Middle East conflicts. For example, a “Hands Off Iran” rallies are scheduled in Jacksonville (FL) and Austin (TX). These events are being advertised on social platforms and are advertised to remain peaceful.
⚽️A Few Upcoming Events
Pride Month Events: Large-scale LGBTQ+ Pride events continue. Chicago Pride Fest will draw tens of thousands ahead of the city’s June 29 parade. San Francisco Pride on June 28 and 29th. New York City on June 29.
Cities are on alert after organizers in Washington, D.C. installed security fencing and tightened access at World Pride earlier this month amid rumored Proud Boys disruptions.
The United States is hosting two soccer tournaments with international appeals. The Club World Cup is hosting events across the country (though primarily on the East Coast). The Concacaf Gold Cup is primarily on the West Coast and Texas.
Standing Advisory: While planning for July 4th celebrations, this DHS and FBI advisory warns that large-scale events could be targets for violence this summer
🔫Significant Incidents
Nationwide “No Kings” Protests. Over 2,000 protests were planned last Saturday across the country. Generally, these events were peaceful, though cities like Los Angeles did see confrontations between protestors and law enforcement.
Political Assassination – Minnesota: A sitting state lawmaker, Melissa Hortman, and her husband were fatally shot in their Brooklyn Park, MN home on June 14 in what officials deemed a targeted political assassination. Another state senator and his wife were wounded in a related attack. After a two-day manhunt, the FBI arrested a 57-year-old suspect, Vance Boelter, who allegedly stalked the officials due to extremist anti-government grievances.
Protest Unrest – Salt Lake City: A 39-year-old demonstrator was killed during chaotic clashes at a “No Kings” anti-Trump protest in Salt Lake City on June 14. Police report that as 10,000 marched downtown, an armed individual broke away from the crowd and raised a rifle toward protesters before volunteer peacekeepers intervened. A peacekeeper’s defensive gunfire stopped the assailant but inadvertently struck and killed the bystander. The alleged gunman, a 24-year-old male with no prior criminal history, was arrested and charged with murder.
🏥Anniversaries
Roe v. Wade Overturned: The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision (June 24, 2022) ended federal abortion protections, sparking mass protests nationwide. The country region witnessed major protests that night and abortion rights groups may rally to remember the ruling.
Health & Medical | Risk Level: Moderate & →
😷Disease Outbreak Status
Respiratory Illnesses: COVID-19, flu, and RSV levels are all “very low” across the country.
Measles: As of June 12, a total of 1,197 confirmed measles cases have been reported.
Foodborne Illnesses: As of June 6, the CDC is investigating a Salmonella outbreak in eggs across 7 states. The eggs had a sell-by date of June 19, so eggs could still be circulating.
Travel Health: Some international destinations have the polio virus circulating, warranting some precautions, but there are no warnings for people to reconsider or avoid traveling.
💉Public Health Emergencies
Federal PHE Declarations: The only national public health emergency currently in force is the opioid crisis PHE, renewed by HHS on March 18, 2025. This emergency facilitates interagency coordination and funding to combat opioid use disorder.
🌲Environmental Health
Air Quality: Areas of the Southwest and into Texas will shift into “unhealthy” levels this week, while parts of the Northeast, Midwest, and Northern California forecast “moderate” air quality.
Allergens: Parts of the Pacific Northwest enter “moderate-to-high” pollen levels, with the Midwest and Southeast to Northeast in “low” ranges, with the rest of the country in the “moderate” range. Click the link for detailed forecasts.
🏥Significant Incidents
Healthcare Strikes: As of June 16, there have been at least 17 healthcare worker strikes this year across the country. In the past week, one major strike was ongoing in Rhode Island (Butler Hospital staff, ~800 workers, on strike since May 15). A nurses’ strike at Henry Ford Rochester (Michigan) Hospital ended this on June 14th, which invovled approxmiately 350 nurses.
💉Looking Ahead
Immunization Campaigns: To be determined, but we will update once there is clarity.
🔥Anniversaries
Cuyahoga River Fire: 56 years ago, on June 22, 1969, a polluted oil-slicked river in Cleveland ignited, burning for about 30 minutes. This modest fire (no photos exist due to its short duration) became an icon of environmental neglect after national media coverage. Public outrage from the Cuyahoga River fire helped spur the creation of the EPA (est. 1970) and the first Earth Day in April 1970. It’s remembered as a turning point in U.S. water pollution control.
Cybersecurity | Risk Level: Elevated & →
📞A Few Past‑Week Cyber Incidents
AT&T & T-Mobile Data Leaks: A massive data leak of ~86 million AT&T customer records (including ~44 million Social Security numbers) was reported on dark web forums. Hackers claimed a fresh breach of 64 million T-Mobile customer records (with extensive personal data), though T-Mobile denied the dataset’s origin.
Food Distributor Attack: United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), a major food distributor, suffered a cyberattack disrupting grocery deliveries nationwide.
Local Government Attacks: In the public sector, a North Carolina city (Thomasville) and a Georgia district attorney’s office (Ogeechee Circuit) had to revert to offline operations after ransomware attacks on their networks, impacting essential services to their communities. Note: budget concerns prevented the Ogeechee Circruit from preparing for this threat.
Washington Post Journalist Emails Breached: The Wall Street Journal disclosed a cyber intrusion into several journalists’ email accounts (suspected foreign espionage as the targets were national security and economic teams reporting on China) that forced a company-wide password reset.
🏭Current Threats
Potential Cybersecurity Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East. The Agriculture and Information Technology Information Sharing and Analysis Centers issued a joint statement this week encouraging companies to prepare for the likelihood of increased cyber attacks from Iran targeting U.S. companies.
State-Sponsored Activity: Chinese state-linked hackers (e.g. APT41) and others continue to target U.S. critical infrastructure, manufacturing, healthcare, and government entities, often dovetailing with geopolitical tensions. Phishing and social engineering remain prevalent as attack vectors across all sectors.
Remote Access Tools Vulnerability: CISA warned that ransomware gangs are actively exploiting flaws in remote management tools (SimpleHelp). The vulnerabilities has been used since January to breach downstream customers, including U.S. retail chains.
💣Anniversaries
Stuxnet: In line with this week’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, this week also marks 15 years since the discovery of Stuxnet (June 2010), the pioneering cyber weapon that infiltrated Iran’s nuclear facilities and alerted the world to industrial control system attacks.
Critical Infrastructure | Risk Level: Elevated & →
🔌Utility Status
Electric Grid: The national power grid is stable, with only Oklahoma and Kansas having more than 10k customers without power.
Grid Reliability Outlook: The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warns of an elevated risk of electricity supply shortfalls in several areas if extreme heat waves occur this summer. NERC’s 2025 Summer Assessment (released May 14) finds that while capacity is sufficient under normal conditions, wide-area heat events could stress grids in the Midwest (MISO), Great Plains (SPP), Texas (ERCOT), and New England.
Water Systems: Public water utilities across the country report normal service.
Telecom: No widespread telecom outages (wireless or internet) are noted. T
🛣️Transportation Disruptions
Highways & Interstates: The national highway network is largely open. There are no active disaster-related interstate closures.
Air Travel: U.S. airports and airspace are experiencing high demand but are fully operational. The FAA has reported some delays due to weather and occasional staffing challenges in ATC, but no airport closures.
Rail & Transit: No major freight rail line blockages. The rail network is clear following earlier spring flooding in the Mississippi Valley (those lines have been repaired).
📦Supply-Chain Alerts
Ports: Ports across the country are reporting “normal” operations.
Freight Logistics: The U.S. supply chain is generally stable. Logistics indices show moderate demand and ample capacity.
Food & Consumer Goods: Essential goods supply is robust nationwide. Grocery inventories (produce, eggs, baby formula, etc.) are healthy. No rationing programs are in effect at major retailers.
Fuel Supply Chain: Fuel delivery is normal.
🚊Anniversaries
Washington, D.C. Metro Crash: On June 22, 2009, two Metro trains collided on DC’s Red Line due to a signal system failure, killing 9 people and injuring ~80. It was Metro’s deadliest accident.
Surfside Condo Collapse: On June 24, 2021, the Champlain Towers South condominium in Surfside, Florida collapsed, killing 98 people in one of the worst structural failures in U.S. history.
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