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Episode #5 | New World Screwworm Returns

How successful risk reduction can reshape readiness—and what happens when the threat comes back.

This episode is part of Baselines & Anomalies, a video series that examines events through the left of bang framework.


Episode Summary

New World screwworm was effectively pushed out of the United States decades ago through a sustained eradication and containment effort. As the threat receded, the likelihood and impact of domestic outbreaks fell, and readiness declined with them. For years, that was a rational allocation of resources.

Now the baseline is changing. After the biological barrier in Panama was breached in 2023, screwworm moved north through Central America and Mexico before returning to Texas in 2026.

This episode looks at the leadership problem that follows: risk can change faster than readiness can be rebuilt, and leaders need to understand not only what threats they face, but how long it will take to restore the capabilities required to respond.


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