This week’s post is a little different from our usual left of bang briefings. In response to the increasingly specific warnings and actions coming out of Europe about the threat of Russian attacks, we wanted to share an episode of Baselines & Anomalies with all subscribers.
Episode Summary
In this episode, we look at a series of increasingly specific warnings from European leaders about the threat posed by Russia and the possibility of attacks expanding beyond Ukraine.
European concern about Russia has been part of the baseline for years, but the anomaly is the growing specificity of the warnings and the observable actions governments are beginning to take in response. We use that shift as a practical example of how Watch Points can help leaders recognize when a changing environment deserves more attention.
From there, we walk through three layers of assessment: where you may be exposed, which assumptions could be wrong, and what second-order effects could reach you even if you are far from the immediate threat.
Key Takeaways
Watch Points change attention. Increasingly specific warnings and observable government actions can signal that conditions are changing enough to justify closer monitoring.
Assess exposure before certainty arrives. Identify where your people, assets, dependencies, and assumptions could become vulnerable if the security environment deteriorates.
Define Action Points in advance. Establish the thresholds that would cause you to act so you can create more time and more options if the situation worsens.
Mentioned in this Episode
Reflective Question
What change in Russia’s behavior or Europe’s security environment would cause you or your organization to move from monitoring the threat to taking action?
