Where We Are, Where We’re Going, and 4 Articles Worth Your Time
Left of Bang Briefing #78
Welcome back to The CP Journal, where we break down what it takes to get left of bang.
Hey everyone,
Over the past couple of weeks, I had the opportunity to revisit and update some of the foundational pages on The CP Journal.
Admittedly, these are pages that most readers don’t notice all that often. But the pages that explain what the company is, where we came from, and how to get the most out of the site serve a critical role as the connective tissue across all of the articles we’ve written.
When these pages do their job well, they help new readers get oriented, allow existing subscribers to discover resources they may have missed, and make the site a little easier to navigate. Because of that, I like to come to these pages from time to time to make sure they are doing their job.
Depending on where you are in your journey, one of these might be a helpful place to jump in:
If you’re new to The CP Journal—our “Start Here” page can help you get oriented.
If you’ve been with us for years—rereading the Evolution of Left of Bang essay might help explain why newer content looks different than articles from a decade ago.
If you’re a paid subscriber looking for courses and resources—the Academy page is the easiest way to see everything that is available for where you are in your career.
If you’re looking for the big picture—our About page explains where The CP Journal came from, while the Subscriber Guide answers common questions and helps you find what you’re looking for.
As I worked through those updates, I could see where my thinking has remained consistent since our first blog post was published in 2011, but also where it has evolved as the threats, hazards, and operating environment in which our readers and clients work have changed. Just as importantly, I could see how we’ve continued to refine how we package and deliver those ideas so they’re easier to apply in the real world.
That backward-looking perspective was helpful as we quietly launched the next version of how we will share our concepts this past week.
Our new podcast, Baselines & Anomalies, is another way we will explore these ideas. Some stories work better in conversation than they do as essays, and the podcast format will give us room to work through current events and what they reveal about the changing environments we work in.
We’ll share more about it over the next few weeks once we’ve built up a small library of episodes, but if you’d like an early look, our first episode goes into Europe’s wildfire readiness challenge and the importance of defining readiness problems accurately.
There is still plenty more to build, but every step brings us closer to helping more people recognize change earlier, make better decisions, and prepare with greater confidence.
Four Things We Read This Week
Here are some articles we read this week that can shape how you’re getting left of bang.
How Terrorist Groups are Using A.I. to Gain an Edge in Battle
Here’s the hook: members of Boko Haram are using A.I. to learn how to jump motorcycles over trenches (how they were stopped in a past attack). They then practice by having members actually jump motorcycles over trenches filled with fire and broken glass as an incentive to not fail (not everyone makes it).
Why we’re sharing it: A lot of conversation about A.I. and security has centered on cybersecurity or the use of A.I. for misinformation/cognitive warfare. The research this article is based on is one of the first that shows how terrorist groups are using it to improve their capabilities and conduct their mission planning.
You can read the article here.
3 Factors Determine if a Strait Becomes a Flashpoint
I absolutely loved this deep dive from the “People’s Art of War” that breaks down what makes a great naval chokepoint. “The world’s trade runs through a handful of gaps narrow enough to see across…Those who control the chokepoints, control the world.”
But how do you determine which ones matter?
The bypass cost is one factor. Who is nearby is a second. How replaceable the things on a stopped ship are is a third. After explaining each of those elements, the article then goes on to identify 5 critical straits not named Hormuz.
You can read the article here.
The Problem of Unlimited Hindsight
Every after-action review faces the same problem: once you know how an event ends, it’s almost impossible to put yourself back into the uncertainty that existed beforehand.
In this article, Von Kliem, President of Force Science, examines the prosecution of a Hartford, CT police officer and the broader debate over accountability, de-escalation, and hindsight in use-of-force investigations. What I found interesting (amongst other things) was the discussion on hindsight.
The challenge when evaluating an incident—whether it is a police use of force or a hurricane—is to only consider the information available to the person or organization at the time of the incident and what preceded it. Perception of a threat, for example, can’t be objectively assessed if it includes information that only revealed itself after the incident occurred.
This is critical for determining what was reasonable before an event—while left of bang—since certainty only becomes possible after the fact—once right of bang. If your role involves taking action without certainty, this article is worth the read as you shape organizational policy and expectations.
You can read the article here.
The Builders Creed
One of the themes we come back to often is that getting left of bang isn’t just about recognizing threats—it’s about intentionally building better organizations before those threats arrive. The future is not something that happens to us—it is something we make.
In this article, Seth Godin outlines 32 rules, concepts, and promises for actually building something, not just talking about it. This article provides an excellent set of reminders for anyone building a better organization, a safer community, or their personal skill set.
You can read the article here.
Before You Go
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